INR open almost flat 68.61 as against yest close of 68.55. Today market is awaiting US Fed decision (rate cut is near certain). The range would be 68.40 to 68.85. Market is seeing exporters coming and selling USD at uptick and as a result premiums also reduced from 3.3 to 3.16 (for 12 months)
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We feel that in next few days market could see a break out below 68.50 or above 68.80. The trigger could come from anywhere. Few things could be US Fed decision of rate cut and their guidance for future; Jalan committee report of transferring RBI surplus to government (scheduled to release on July 16 ) or some geopolitical issues involving US and Iran.
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For now we think there are more chances of breaking above 68.80. Although for long-term we continue to believe INR looks strong and any uptick around 69 or above should be used to sell long-term exports.