INR forecast: INR opens weaker at 72.72 as against Fridays close of 72.49 and may trade the day between 72.45-72.95 under two way price action.
Today crude prices jumped as Saudi announced plans to cut crude oil production. In a bigger picture, crude oil price risk seems to have less concern and investors feel that inflation may remain tame, the have started bringing money in bonds market. Similar trend is see in other Asian countries, particularly Indonesia.
Taking a medium term view, we believe markets would now start pricing political uncertainty risk in India. Globally also, EU, UK and US are also going the political uncertainty.
In the immediate next few days picture, developments from liquidity issues for NBFCs; outcome from RBI board meeting on Nov 19th; Essar Steel resolution etc would determine the market changes. Technically, for few days, INR to remain in range of 72.10 to 73.30.