INR forecast: INR opens flat at 6896 and now 6894. Range for the day is 6880 to 6910
Trump offered aid in terms of relief funding of USD 12 bn to US farmers for loss from retaliatory tariffs by China. Going forward, in short term, US has more to loose from trade war as China can make up, to some extent, from weakness in CNY. These dynamics could also lead Trump administration talking to weaken USD.
What is unclear how would China react if US were to go ahead with some tariffs on entire Chinese import of USD 50 bn.
We also understand that local in US, there is increasing disturbance amongst business community on prolonged trade war related uncertainty. Trump has irritated all its partners- EU, S.America, Canada and China.
For India, in long run, trade war between US and China is good as we get access to Chinese market and Trump remains busy with China and not open up trade discussions with us!
Global equities rallied and so has Asians. PBOC fixes CNY above 6.8 and it appears that levels around 6.8 to be new normal till further developments emerge in trade war.
Today HDFC AMC IPO opens up and this may bring some USD inflows.
Suggest to hedge long term exports around 6905-6910 and near term import around 6880.