Theme Based ResearchUS ten year yield breaches below 2% – Good sign for INR and other EMsJune 21, 2019Scenarios of rupee movement on election result dayMay 22, 2019Indian bonds looking very attractive for FIIs – new reason for INR to gainMarch 26, 2019Stage set for rally in equity; INR and bondsDecember 19, 20185 key takeaways from RBI meetingDecember 5, 2018Why RBI’s falling Fx reserves is not a matter of major concern for India?November 20, 2018INR closes at record low @74.40October 9, 2018Globally yields have started rising in last few days. A sign of growth or a sign of lurking bearish sentiment ? Implication for RBI and INR.October 4, 2018Embrace for increase in market volatility in November : Safeguard yourself using Plain Options.October 2, 2018Early sign of reversal in INR, may be 70September 20, 2018Current INR weakness has similarity to 2013 – Exporters be prepared to capture the reversal, whenever it starts!September 6, 2018India’s sticky external account deficit – Oil is not the only culprit!August 27, 2018India’s external debt – is it really a concern?August 17, 2018No visible bias of policymakers to keep INR weakness under checkAugust 14, 2018Macro indicators are good but global headwind continue to remain strongAugust 14, 2018Weakness in INR is lesser than premium earning – implication for export hedging!August 7, 2018Impact of US-China trade war on Emerging Market currenciesJuly 31, 2018Daily Market UpadteIndian markets see lump USD inflows, keeping INR strongDecember 11, 2019Trump tweets back in driving set; Global market rattles as trade deal may get pushed by over a yearDecember 4, 2019GDP numbers as expected; GST collections bounce up ; INR steadyDecember 2, 2019Macros for India financial sector seems to be resolving; Global market awaiting US-China dealNovember 29, 2019Lot of small positive news for general risk sentiment; Next trigger could be GDP data on 29th NovNovember 26, 2019Hopes of US-China trade deal and possible inflow of SBI bondsNovember 25, 2019INR having positive news flow in otherwise sombre global moodNovember 21, 2019GSec yields continue to be soft neglecting fiscal concerns; Telecom sector revival good newsNovember 20, 2019INR gains as Arcelor Mittal USD inflow becomes near certainNovember 18, 2019Poor economic data and fiscal concerns driving fresh weakness in INRNovember 14, 2019Fiscal concerns for India may weaken INRNovember 11, 2019Moody’s send a strong feedback to Govt by lowering India credit outlookNovember 8, 2019Twists and turns in US China deal resulting in one step forward and one step backwards for marketsNovember 7, 2019CNY trades below 7.0; but INR is range boundNovember 6, 2019India refuses RCEP; Bajaj Finance QIP to be watched for INR gainsNovember 5, 2019Risk sentiment seems to be improving – INR range to be 71.30 to 72.20September 11, 2019US-China trade war dwarfs stimulus announcement by FM – INR to remain weakAugust 26, 2019CNY springs surprise; shoots up; Overall risk aversion comes back- INR looks quite weak – may be 74 levels over next 4-6 weeksAugust 22, 2019Surprising de-escalation of tension between US and China; Next two weeks things may be normalAugust 14, 2019CNY continues to slide amidst assurance from PBOC; INR only following CNY; Today RBI may cut rate more than 25 bpAugust 7, 2019Past history of CNY devaluation suggests that there could be INR worries for next 2-3 weeksAugust 6, 2019CNY weakens above 7.0 and INR at 70.50- Start of trade war turning into currency war between US and ChinaAugust 5, 2019RBI may cut interest rate by 0.5% and indicate more cuts; US fed cuts by 0.25%August 1, 2019For how long can INR remain stable – Until yield differential is highJuly 29, 2019IMF says USD overvalued; Major Central banks set to cut ratesJuly 19, 2019INR in tight range and waiting for triggerJuly 16, 2019Looks after US rate cut, equities may fall and USD may rise (Bec all was discounted !)July 10, 2019Bond market inflows to offset any weakness in equityJuly 9, 2019INR could see some weakness to shed overvaluationJuly 8, 2019Economic survey suggests push to exports; we feel RBI may support and not let INR become overvaluedJuly 5, 2019Good budget expectations and fall in crude keep INR gainingJuly 3, 2019US-China risks subside for the moment. Rupee to be in the range of 68.80-69.50 before budget.July 1, 2019INR is tight range of 69.0-70.0 under watchful eyes of RBIJune 27, 2019Trump also down USD; yesterday INR saw FII inflowsJune 25, 2019INR stays in range; eye on G-20 over weekendJune 24, 2019Crude spurt 5% as US-Iran tension escalates; We think no major worry for INRJune 21, 2019Trump tweets lifts markets; Indian bonds see further dip in yieldsJune 19, 2019Main triggers ahead are US FOMC and G20 meeting outcomeJune 14, 2019Crude retraces back; INR back in range of 69 – 69.50June 11, 2019Trump eases on Mexico tariffs; Asian equities cheer itJune 10, 2019USD selling seen even at small upticks; NBFC liquidity crisis needs to be watchedJune 7, 2019Continued fall in crude prices to support; Expect RBI to announce measures to wrest NBFC crisisJune 6, 2019India 10 year yield falls below 7%; overall positive environment for INRJune 4, 2019Exit polls show strong BJP number: Investors look for Policy continuity, Rupee and bonds gainsMay 20, 2019Rupee near important level of 70.40 and could see reversal; Crude Oil and Dollar cool offApril 26, 2019USD looks further strong; RBI intervention and lumpy USD inflows eyedApril 25, 2019Likely inflow of Vodafone rights issue + NCLAT comment on Arcelor led to sharp INR gainsApril 10, 2019Limited impact of Indo-Pak escalation on INR; RBI is watchingFebruary 27, 2019RBI Meeting outcome @ 11:45 AM – A lot depends on it.February 7, 2019Solid US NFP and crude drifting higher could hurt RupeeFebruary 4, 2019Dovish Fed; USD falters; EMs gains but INR gains are mutedJanuary 31, 2019BREXIT vote failed- not much reaction; INR now eyeing budget.January 16, 2019Week starts with risk ON mood; crucial level of 68.85 is eyedJanuary 7, 2019Strong signs of no more rate hikes by US; US-China meeting on Jan 7-8January 4, 2019Trend of sharp two way moves; broad direction still of INR strengthDecember 21, 2018Market turns flat ahead of Fed meet, INR sees marginal gains.December 17, 2018ECB, like US Fed, echoing slowdown in growthDecember 14, 2018Market cheer IIP and CPI dataDecember 13, 2018Focus back to fundamentals; BJP’s performance not that badDecember 12, 2018Change in RBI -Liquidity may improve; BJP wash out in electionsDecember 11, 2018Slower growth in US and other countries is the latest themeDecember 7, 2018RBI likely to hold rate, While power of Trump tweet- risk aversion restartsDecember 5, 2018For now 70 should hold, US-China meeting (Dec 1) and State election results to watchNovember 26, 2018INR could see swings post RBI board meetingNovember 19, 2018Increased prospects of truce between US and China; BREXIT uncertainty is non eventNovember 16, 2018Till State elections, no major event; INR may see further gains.November 15, 2018Markets to now start pricing political uncertaintyNovember 12, 2018Current correction in INR may have more steam leftNovember 9, 2018Flat markets ahead of Iran sanction (Nov 4th) and US mid (Nov 6th)October 26, 2018Swift move by RBI to infuse liquidity; averts NBFC crisisOctober 19, 2018INR in a uncertain zone-72.90 to 73.50; next few days are criticalOctober 17, 2018Local data releases support INR; could remain in range for a whileOctober 16, 2018INR witnessing technical correction; possibly towards 73.10October 12, 2018DOW slump triggered by rising US interest rate; EMs dropOctober 11, 2018IMF cuts 2019 growth forecast for US and ChinaOctober 9, 2018RBI keeping status quo; focus back to basics – US yield and CrudeOctober 8, 2018Although inflation does not demand rate hike, RBI may still do it.October 1, 2018Would duty hike really help?September 27, 2018US FOMC in sight, Iran sanctions on Nov 4th.September 26, 2018INR is testing nerves of forecasterSeptember 24, 2018Early signs of short term reversal in INRSeptember 21, 2018China reacts mildly to fresh US tariffs, markets unmovedSeptember 19, 2018It appears that Trump tirade may slow downSeptember 18, 2018Half hearted intervention from Govt: INR bounces backSeptember 17, 2018Signs of profit booking in USDINRSeptember 14, 2018Trump train roll on and picks speedSeptember 10, 2018Yesterday first signs of strong intervention by RBI; technically INR still looks weakSeptember 7, 2018US India 2+2 meeting in focusSeptember 6, 2018SEBI circular spokes FPI; Brent rise results in GSec spikeSeptember 4, 2018India healthy Gap growth but globally it is risk aversionSeptember 3, 2018Time for policy makers to intervene, signs of panic in market are emergingAugust 31, 2018INR trying to break above 70.30-70.40 levels.August 29, 2018Revised NAFTA; Trump had its say!; USD losses; INR still weakAugust 28, 2018China takes steps to stabilise CNY: INR also gainsAugust 27, 2018US-China trade talk ended without results; Trump tweet again S Africa driving EMs lowerAugust 24, 2018Despite fall in USD index, INR weakens – indicating weak undercurrent for INRAugust 23, 2018Dollar index fell on Trump comments: INR gains for second consecutive dayAugust 21, 2018INR in unchartered territory, Indian policy makers seem calmAugust 16, 2018Massive external debt is the main reason for sharp fall of TRY. India has to watch out!August 14, 2018Turkey leads the plunge -INR opens at lifetime low of 69.49August 13, 2018US imposes sanction on Russia – currency markets and USD risesAugust 10, 2018Crude falls by 3% aiding INRAugust 9, 2018Stable market – Waiting for new triggersAugust 8, 2018Parliament Standing Committee wants restoration of LOU (Letter of Undertaking)August 7, 2018Some stability in CNYAugust 6, 2018Escalating U.S-China trade row, drags INR lowerAugust 3, 2018RBI hike interest rate by 25bps to curb inflationary pressureAugust 2, 2018INR opens cautioned at 68.55 ahead of RBI meetingAugust 1, 2018INR paused ahead of RBI meetingJuly 31, 2018RBI expected to maintain status quo on monetary policyJuly 30, 2018CNY above 6.80, RBI intervention keeps INR strongerJuly 27, 2018INR gains on back of positive development from trade warJuly 26, 2018INR opens little changed, as market waits for any fresh development from Trade war.July 25, 2018USD gains momentum on surging 10 year yieldJuly 24, 2018INR opens stronger on Trumps comments over stronger USDJuly 23, 2018CNY weakness drives INR to all time lowJuly 20, 2018INR slipped lower over U.S-China trade tariff issueJuly 19, 2018Dollar gains positive momentum on hawkish Fed toneJuly 18, 2018Trump-Putin meeting concludes, limited market reactionJuly 17, 2018CONTACT US FOR PERSONALIZED RESEARCH REPORTS Phone First Name Call me on Email Address
Globally yields have started rising in last few days. A sign of growth or a sign of lurking bearish sentiment ? Implication for RBI and INR.October 4, 2018
Embrace for increase in market volatility in November : Safeguard yourself using Plain Options.October 2, 2018
Current INR weakness has similarity to 2013 – Exporters be prepared to capture the reversal, whenever it starts!September 6, 2018
Trump tweets back in driving set; Global market rattles as trade deal may get pushed by over a yearDecember 4, 2019
Macros for India financial sector seems to be resolving; Global market awaiting US-China dealNovember 29, 2019
Lot of small positive news for general risk sentiment; Next trigger could be GDP data on 29th NovNovember 26, 2019
GSec yields continue to be soft neglecting fiscal concerns; Telecom sector revival good newsNovember 20, 2019
Twists and turns in US China deal resulting in one step forward and one step backwards for marketsNovember 7, 2019
CNY springs surprise; shoots up; Overall risk aversion comes back- INR looks quite weak – may be 74 levels over next 4-6 weeksAugust 22, 2019
Surprising de-escalation of tension between US and China; Next two weeks things may be normalAugust 14, 2019
CNY continues to slide amidst assurance from PBOC; INR only following CNY; Today RBI may cut rate more than 25 bpAugust 7, 2019
Past history of CNY devaluation suggests that there could be INR worries for next 2-3 weeksAugust 6, 2019
CNY weakens above 7.0 and INR at 70.50- Start of trade war turning into currency war between US and ChinaAugust 5, 2019
Economic survey suggests push to exports; we feel RBI may support and not let INR become overvaluedJuly 5, 2019
US-China risks subside for the moment. Rupee to be in the range of 68.80-69.50 before budget.July 1, 2019
Continued fall in crude prices to support; Expect RBI to announce measures to wrest NBFC crisisJune 6, 2019
Exit polls show strong BJP number: Investors look for Policy continuity, Rupee and bonds gainsMay 20, 2019
Rupee near important level of 70.40 and could see reversal; Crude Oil and Dollar cool offApril 26, 2019
Likely inflow of Vodafone rights issue + NCLAT comment on Arcelor led to sharp INR gainsApril 10, 2019
For now 70 should hold, US-China meeting (Dec 1) and State election results to watchNovember 26, 2018
Yesterday first signs of strong intervention by RBI; technically INR still looks weakSeptember 7, 2018
US-China trade talk ended without results; Trump tweet again S Africa driving EMs lowerAugust 24, 2018
Massive external debt is the main reason for sharp fall of TRY. India has to watch out!August 14, 2018
